Matchday Price
Football base rates counted from finished matches, and an open test of whether combination bets are mispriced. Everything published here is dated and checkable.
Fair Price
Bookmakers usually price a combination by multiplying its parts, which is only correct if the parts are independent. Football outcomes often are not. This arm measures the gap — and is in test, with nothing to show yet.
No combinations posted so far.
Stats
Results, goals, corners, cards, half-time splits and streak continuation — by competition and season, each rate carrying the sample behind it.
11,761 finished matches across 8 competitions, 2022–2026.
What this site is not
It is not a tipping service, and nothing here is advice to place a bet. The combinations posted under Fair Price exist to create a dated record that can be judged later — not because we think you should back them. If and when there is enough settled data to say something, it will be said with its sample size attached, and it may well be that there is no edge at all. That is a real possible outcome of a test.
Why the dates matter
Anyone can publish a winning record after the fact. Every deploy of this site writes a list of every published file with its cryptographic hash, anchors that list into the Bitcoin blockchain through a public timestamping service, and asks the Internet Archive to take an independent copy. None of those three are under our control after the fact.
That means a claim on this site can be checked against what the site actually said at the time, by you, without taking our word for it. See the publication record.