Stats
What actually happened, counted from finished matches. No model, no predictions, no selections — these are the background rates any claim made elsewhere on this site has to be measured against.
The pages
League reference
Results, both teams to score, over 2.5, and goals, corners and cards per match — by competition and season. The base rates everything else is compared against.
Half-time splits
How often a lead at the interval survives to full time, how matches level at half-time finish, and where in the match goals actually arrive.
Streak continuation
Given a run of a certain length already exists, how often it reaches one more match — split by whether the run continued inside a season or across a summer.
How to read anything on these pages
Every rate carries the number of observations behind it. Percentages are shown to one decimal place, because the underlying files carry four and that would imply a precision these samples do not have. Where a sample falls below 20, the cell reads insufficient sample rather than a number — a percentage over a handful of matches is noise, and printing it would be the misleading choice.
The underlying files are published alongside the pages, so any figure here can be checked against the data it came from rather than taken on trust.
How these numbers were produced
- Source
- Finished fixtures held in this project's own database — 11,761 matches across 8 competitions, seasons 2022–2026. No third-party statistics feed is involved in these figures.
- A match counts when
- ft_home_goals and ft_away_goals both non-null (settled)
- Half-time leader
- team ahead on ht_*_goals; fixtures level at half-time reported as their own category, not assigned to either side
- Second-half goals
- full-time minus half-time per team; fixture excluded if either ft_*_goals or ht_*_goals is null
- Suppression
- Any cell with a sample below 20 is shown as "insufficient sample" instead of a rate. 320 cells are suppressed in this build.
- Known exclusions
- 3 fixture(s) are excluded from the half-time figures because half-time goals are missing for them. They are listed in the manifest.
- Built
- 2026-08-14 08:49:01 UTC, from commit
7e9181ffb9.
The complete manifest — every parameter, a per-column census of missing data, and the full list of suppressed cells — is published as manifest.json. Nothing on these pages is derived from data not linked here.